County Tipperary Chamber - Doing Business In County Tipperary
  • Home
  • Who We Are
    • Meet Our Team
    • History
    • Meet Our Board
    • Our Mission Statement
    • About Tipperary
    • Contact
  • International Trade
    • Brexit and Certs of Origin- Chamber Update
  • Chamber Member Directory
    • Testimonials
    • Job Listings
  • Upcoming Events
    • Chamber Networking Event
    • St Patrick Day 2023
    • Sustainability
    • County Tipperary Skillnet Courses
    • News >
      • Blog
      • Chamber Newsletter
      • Gallery
      • Chamber Video
  • County Tipperary Chamber Business Awards 2022
    • County Tipperary Chamber Business Awards Tickets Portal
    • Social Enterprise of the Year Award
    • CSR Community Impact Award
    • Workplace Wellbeing, Diversity & Inclusion Award
    • Employer of the Year Distinction In Upskilling. Attracting Talent & Retention
    • Startup of the Year Award
    • Energy Management Leadership Award
    • Agribusiness of the Year Award
    • Digital Transformation Award: Wholesale, Retail, Transport
    • The President's Award
    • Innovation Award
    • Industry 4.0 (Smart Manufacturing) Award
    • Outstanding Customer Experience Award

A Hard Brexit is coming – take advice from the scouts and ‘be prepared’         by Denis Casey of Casey Business Consulting

20/6/2017

0 Comments

 
Picture
As we all know the UK triggered Article 50 at the end of March and this began its two year withdrawal process from the EU. The formal talks on Brexit began today in Brussels. As a result the UK will leave the EU before April 2019. The departure could be delayed but only if this delay is agreed to by the UK and all remaining EU countries. The UK will not want to contemplate a delay in the process at this early stage. Also complex negotiations like these tend to go down to the wire and only get finalised at the 11th hour as the deadline approaches.
The process itself has two major phases. Phase one is to negotiate the withdrawal process or the ‘divorce’ and this is a major undertaking. The UK has been part of the EU (or Common Market as it was known then) since 1973 and over the years its affairs have become intertwined with those of the EU. The EU wants agreement reached on the divorce bill as part of phase one.
Like all divorce settlements the financial side of things will be the most contentious and will be the cause of the biggest arguments. The EU wants the UK to pay significant money to the EU as part of the ‘divorce settlement’ – this is estimated to be in the range of €25 billion to €100 billion depending on the assumptions made. It’s hard to see both sides still being friends at the end of those discussions.
Phase two is to negotiate the future trading relationship. The EU is insisting on completing phase one, before phase two commences, while the UK would like both to take place in parallel. Currently the EU is winning this argument.
Phase two is where the hard Brexit and soft Brexit arguments really come into play. In a hard Brexit the UK would give up full access to the single market and full access to the customs union. It would also give the UK full control over its borders.
In a soft Brexit the UK’s relationship with the EU would remain close and it would retain access to the single market without tariffs etc. However in a soft Brexit the UK would have to sign up to the “four freedoms” of the EU – namely the free movement of goods, people, services and capital over borders. If the UK is prepared to sign up to these, then why is it leaving in the first place? No Brexit is more likely than a soft Brexit and I think the UK is too proud to do a ‘U-turn’ at this stage.
Also one of the main reasons for the leave vote was the desire to restrict the free movement of people. Therefore the UK will want to restrict the movement of people as part of the final agreement.
For its part the EU will want to discourage other countries from following the UK’s example and the best way to do this is to restrict its access to the single market.
This leads me to conclude that the final deal will include a hard border and import / export tariffs for trade between the EU and the UK. Effectively a hard Brexit.
While both sides have acknowledged a desire to avoid a hard border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, finding a creative way to avoid this may not be possible. If there is to be a restriction on the movement of people, goods and services between the EU and the UK, then there must a hard border somewhere. The North has more trade with Great Britain than it does with the Republic. Therefore the introduction of a hard border between the North and Great Britain is very unlikely. Equally I cannot see the Republic being happy to have a hard border between it and the EU. This mean hard borders would be located between the Republic and the North and between the Republic and Great Britain. 
Regarding import and export tariffs the worst case scenario would be the default WTO trade terms. However, I think it’s reasonable to assume that the tariffs agreed will be lower than these and that they will vary by sector. While the EU will want to discourage others from leaving the EU, it will only go so far. The introduction of tariffs will also affect the performance of EU businesses. Tariff rate quotas are likely to be used to minimise the impact on trade between the Republic and the UK. While these will reduce the impact there will still be an impact and businesses need to plan for this.
Of course fluctuations in the exchange rate is also a major concern, and the weaker pound is already impacting our exports to the UK. The rate will be influenced by how well the UK performs post Brexit and Irish businesses need to understand their exposure to this. In particular they should know their breakeven exchange rate.
In summary then, I believe a Hard Brexit is on the way and this will bring with it a hard border between the Republic and Northern Ireland. This will include custom checks at the border. Also I believe trade tariffs will be introduced between the Republic and the UK (including Northern Ireland).
These will have a major effect on most if not all Irish businesses. Adopting a wait and see attitude is not wise on this occasion. The actions required to minimize the impact or to take advantage of opportunities arising from Brexit will take time to implement. There will be winners and losers in the business world post Brexit. Those that plan and take action now will be the winners. Businesses should take advice from the Scouts and ‘be prepared’.
In my next article I will share my thoughts on what you can and should do to make sure your business is one of the winners post Brexit.​
Picture
0 Comments

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    Chamber News & Events

    Read some of our past events and posts,

    Categories

    All
    Apple Farm -TV3
    Bank Of Ireland Business Invite
    Bank Of Ireland Founder Friday Tipperary
    BARLO - FREE DRAW
    BOSTON SCIENTIFIC - Coaching As A Tool To Release Employee Potential
    Boston Scientific - Manufacturing Excellence - Leveraging High Value Resources/skill And Space.
    Chambers Ireland CSR Awards 2017
    Chambers Ireland Infrastructure Needs 12/7/2017
    Chambers Ireland SBIR
    Chambers Ireland Summer Economic Statement 12/7/2017
    Clonmel Chamber Members
    Clonmel Healthcare
    Coty Cosmetics
    David Shanahan - New CEO!
    Deirdre Clune MEP Visit
    Denis Casey - A Hard Brexit Is Coming
    EBS Clonmel Information Events
    Eirechrom
    Enterprise Ireland New Frontiers
    FIELDMASTER 40 Years In Business
    HORAN AUTOMATION: Collaborative Robots: Fad Or Revolution
    Horan Automation: PRESS RELEASE
    Horan Automation Vacancy
    Horan Automation Video
    Hotel Minella
    LEO Tipperary - Retail Retreat
    L.I.T. 'The Stress Test' Programme
    Membership Services Admin
    Merry's Irish Cream Liqueur
    METIS IRELAND - AHEAD OF THE CURVE
    Metis Ireland AMRF
    Michael Clinton RIP
    MORRISON BMW - Red Tag Event
    Nationalist - Yesteryears Launch
    Network Manager County Tipperary Skillnet
    OGBP Michelle Lawton Partner
    O'Sullivan Insurance Newsletter 13/7/2017
    PULSE LOGISTICS - EXPO SPONSOR
    PWM Award Winner
    Ryan Motor Power - Skoda Dealer Of The Year
    Simon Coveney Visit
    South East Action Plan For Jobs Marketing And Branding Initiative
    South Tipperary Hospice Movement
    Tom Pollard RIP
    Virgin Media Announces FREE Public Wifi In Major Digital Upgrade For Clonmel
    WARD GROUP - GDPR

    RSS Feed

site map


  • Home
  • Who We Are
  • News
  • International Trade
  • Chamber Members
  • Events
  • County Tipperary Skillnet
  • Contact

Location


County Tipperary Chamber of commerce

Questum Acceleration Centre,
Ballingarranne Science & Technology Park, Clonmel, Co. Tipperary,
E91 V329

Contact Us


Email
ceo@countytipperarychamber.com

Call
0526126500

    Subscribe TO OUR NEWSLETTER Today!

Submit
Clonmel Chamber Of Commerce CLG t/a County Tipperary Chamber Of Commerce - Registered business-110743
​REGISTERED BUSINESS ADDRESS: Questum Acceleration Centre, Clonmel, Co. Tipperary, E91 V329
Copyright © 2016 - County Tipperary Chamber
Picture
  • Home
  • Who We Are
    • Meet Our Team
    • History
    • Meet Our Board
    • Our Mission Statement
    • About Tipperary
    • Contact
  • International Trade
    • Brexit and Certs of Origin- Chamber Update
  • Chamber Member Directory
    • Testimonials
    • Job Listings
  • Upcoming Events
    • Chamber Networking Event
    • St Patrick Day 2023
    • Sustainability
    • County Tipperary Skillnet Courses
    • News >
      • Blog
      • Chamber Newsletter
      • Gallery
      • Chamber Video
  • County Tipperary Chamber Business Awards 2022
    • County Tipperary Chamber Business Awards Tickets Portal
    • Social Enterprise of the Year Award
    • CSR Community Impact Award
    • Workplace Wellbeing, Diversity & Inclusion Award
    • Employer of the Year Distinction In Upskilling. Attracting Talent & Retention
    • Startup of the Year Award
    • Energy Management Leadership Award
    • Agribusiness of the Year Award
    • Digital Transformation Award: Wholesale, Retail, Transport
    • The President's Award
    • Innovation Award
    • Industry 4.0 (Smart Manufacturing) Award
    • Outstanding Customer Experience Award